Economist: Georgia’s Job Losses to Grow Until 2010

By TMICHAEL E. KANELL /The Atlanta Journal-Constitution / Wednesday, November 19,'08

Rajeev Dhawan, director of the Economic Forecasting Center at Georgia State University, predicted Wednesday that the already gloomy unemployment picture in Georgia and metro Atlanta will worsen at least through next year before a light rebound.
“We expect significant layoffs in the state,” Dhawan said in a report to be released today at the center’s quarterly conference.
By the end of 2008, the state will have lost 75,100 jobs — more than one-third of them “premium,” relatively better-paying positions, Dhawan said. Georgia’s unemployment rate, 6.5 percent in September, will rise to 7.5 percent next year and to 8 percent in 2010.
From the start of the job cuts to the end of 2009, Georgia payrolls will bleed a stunning 170,000 jobs — 4 percent of the total, he said.
Metro Atlanta, which accounts for about two-thirds of the state’s jobs, will likewise account for the majority of this year’s job losses, he said: Atlanta payrolls will shed 45,600 jobs.
Metro Atlanta will lose 42,100 jobs next year before adding a modest number — 17,200 positions — in 2010.
The worst losses are coming in construction, where 12,200 jobs disappeared in the past two quarters, according to Dhawan. Housing construction, which provided so much of the muscle for Atlanta’s boom, has shriveled dramatically. New housing permits will end this year down by 54 percent — after a 35 percent drop in 2007, Dhawan said.
The number of permits will slide again next year before bottoming out in 2010, he said.
U.S. picture also bleak - Nationally, paralleling the recessions of 1990-91 and 2001, the current downturn will be followed by an expansion that does not bring job growth, Dhawan said.
Although anemic growth will return late next year, “real” economic recovery is two years away, he said. Large-scale job losses will continue into the second half of 2009, even if the economy begins an expansion that will feel very much like a downturn.
Dhawan blamed this fall’s volatility in credit markets for undercutting the economy.
“This recession is much more severe than projected in our August report,” Dhawan wrote. “So far, we have lost a million jobs and I expect we will lose 2 million more within the next 12 months.”
More global than in the past - Georgia through the 1980s and 1990s was among the nation’s leaders in job growth and seemed to suffer less when the national economy slipped. But lately, unemployment in Georgia has been running at least as high as the national average — and in the past several months, Georgia’s jobless rate has been slightly higher than that of the United States.
“Now, more than ever, our fortunes are tied to what happens nationally and even globally,” Dhawan said. The state has been facing pain from a range of forces: a struggling real estate sector — where foreclosures have been at near-epidemic levels — the recent closing of two auto plants, the mergers of Delta with Northwest and of Wachovia with Wells Fargo. Consumers are reeling and bankruptcy filings are climbing.
Meanwhile, the increase in export trade has been undercut by both a stronger U.S. dollar and a worldwide economic slowdown.


OUR ECONOMIC JUSTICE POLICY

We believe that if a person works 40 hours per week, then he/she should be able to access basic housing. Existing federal guidelines have been used to determine what a living wage should be. The first guideline dictates that no more than 30% of a person's gross income should be spent on housing. The second is Fair Market Rents (FMR's), established by HUD, nationwide, for both rural and metropolitan areas. FMR's are based on the gross rent estimates, which include shelter rent and the cost of utilities, except for phone service. , Though the average livable wages for cities across the U.S. is calculated $12.75, federal minimum wage remains at $5.25.

Those with disabilities, or who are unable to work for other reasons, lack the resources to obtain or maintain decent housing. 40% of those without housing are working. Many who manage to maintain housing with low paying jobs, do so out of their food or health care budgets and budgets for other basic needs. This may explain why 42 million Americans are without health insurance and why one in four children, in Georgia, go to bed hungry. It explains why over 7 million Americans experienced homelessness last year and why millions are continually at risk of becoming homeless. The Task Force continually strives to educate and advocate for livable wages for all and for access to basic needs, including decent housing and quality health care for all [including those who cannot work].

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BELOW ARE A FEW ARTICLES RE: HEALTHCARE FROM OUR ARCHIVES THAT RELATE TO DIFFERENT ASPECTS OF HEALTHCARE AS IT RELATES TO POVERTY AND HOMELESSNESS...

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